effectivelywildfandomcom-20200215-history
Episode 237: Stats That Won’t Last/No-Hitters and No-Walkers/The Worst Shortstop Ever/A Pitcher Who Can Hit/The All-Bunting Team/Trading Top Prospects for Trout/Pint-Sized Power Hitters
Date July 3, 2013 Summary Ben and Sam answer the most listener emails they've ever answered. Topics * Statistics that won't last * Hypothetical - Bad shortstops * Pitchers hitting * All bunting team * Trading top prospects for Mike Trout or Bryce Harper * Power hitting and player size Intro "So many questions' sound clips Email Questions * Robert: "Given the relative newness of sabermetrics, do you think there is a point down the road where we look back comically at what we are using now? Will defense ever be universally quantified or will we shake our heads at how much we relied on WAR? In short, what do you think the biggest weaknesses are in sabermetrics and where will we be 10-20 years from now?" * Mike (Philadelphia, PA), paraphrased by Ben: Fox has incorporated OPS into its broadcasts. Is it dumb to just show that instead of a full slash line? * Kyle: "Homer Bailey threw another no hitter last night but walked a guy, which is the same as throwing a 1 hit shutout with no walks. This leads me to my question, how frequent are no-walk shutouts as opposed to no-hit shutouts?" * Derek: "Hypothetically, if Jose Molina or someone similar was allowed to play a full season at shortstop in an alternate universe, what would happen? What would his DRS or UZR be? How many wins would it cost his team?" * Adam (Dallas, TX): "There is no way that this could happen, but it's no less ridiculous than infielders crowding around the batters box so hear me out. Let's say Justin Verlander wasn't just an awesome pitcher but also a pretty awesome hitter and Detroit needed a DH. Hypothetically, what would Verlander's true slash line have to be to justify him playing DH when he's not pitching? I'd have to believe that at a certain point the bat would be too tempting not to have in the lineup. or is the breakeven point so extreme that he would be permanently moved off the mound to play only DH? What if it was a more marginal pitcher?" * Tyler (Vancouver, BC): "Here in Vancouver there was a legendary semi professional team of Japanese Canadians known as the Asahi that played from 1914 until the outset of war in 1942. In order to make up for their lack of size compared to their competition, the Asahi put a strong emphasis on OBP, unique base running strategies, and defensive prowess. In one particular game in which the Asahi were facing a former professional pitcher who could be described as Verlander-esque, the team's manager decided to utilize a new strategy. Knowing that his batters were unlikely to get any hits against this powerhouse pitcher he instructed every one of his batters to bunt. Each player then utilized a different bunting technique that would force the infielders to run as much as possible. Much like the rope-a-dope the intended effect of this strategy was to wear down the opposing team with the added bonus of frustrating the hell out of them. In the end the Asahi won the game scoring runs through a combination of walks, errors, and squeeze plays. The opposing pitcher recorded a no hitter but still lost the game. With this in mind, I wanted to know if you think this can be an effective strategy for an underpowered/speedy team to utilize against the Tigers or a similarly sluggish team, and whether you think the Tigers hitting would suffer as their infielders became increasingly fatigued from chasing after balls." * Jacob: "How much young talent do you think would be fair in exchange for Mike Trout or Bryce Harper? Would all of the top 10 prospects in baseball be enough? What about the top 15 or 20? * Saxon (Brooklyn, NY): "I was watching a Padres game the other night and 5'7", 150 lb Alexi Amarista came up to bat. His stats appear on the screen and under home runs the number four was listed. Alexi Amarista, whose growth seemed to stop somewhere around 8th or 9th grade has 4 home runs. FOUR! So I just went over to the ESPN home run tracker site and only two of those home runs were deemed 'just enough'. None of them were considered lucky. In fact even one of them was over 400 feet. My question is, how? How does a guy like Alexi Amarista have four bombs this year and someone like J.B. Shuck who is 5'11" and 195 lbs, or Elvis Andrus who is 6' 200 lbs not have any this year? Let alone someone like Shuck having none in his career. I understand that guys like Shuck and even Andrus are probably not trying to swing for the fences. They aren't that type of hitter but clearly neither is Amarista. How are there players who are so much bigger than Alexi not able to knock one out and yet someone so small as Alexi can hit a handful of home runs? This is weird, right?" Notes * Ben thinks that most stats which rely on a subjective evaluation will fade out of use. * Sam prefers "plus" for adjusted stats over "minus" stats because it sounds better and is more fun to say. * Sam: "As a writer, I find that OPS has a communicative value that often exceeds the better stats." But he worries that it could one day descend into mockable territory like RBIs. * Ben and Sam agree a one-hit/no-walk shutout is more impressive than a one-walk/no-hit one. * Since 2000 there have been 28 no-hit shutouts and 263 no-walk shutouts. * Sam, on Ben's love for Vancouver: "Ben, why do you take all your vacations in the same place?" * Before encouraging listeners to subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, Ben notes that it's something they hadn't yet done on the show. Sam insists that they are primarily writers, and that them podcasting is like pitchers hitting. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 237: Stats That Won’t Last/No-Hitters and No-Walkers/The Worst Shortstop Ever/A Pitcher Who Can Hit/The All-Bunting Team/Trading Top Prospects for Trout/Pint-Sized Power Hitters * What's better: 10 elite prospects or 5,900 non-prospects by Sam Miller Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes